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Where Obama Could Do Better Than Kerry

Posted by libhom Sunday, March 09, 2008

It looks like the only way Clinton can win the Democratic nomination would be through a party-destroying superdelegate scam. Obama really is the only Democrat who is a viable candidate in the general election. Under these circumstances, it is interesting to think about where Obama could do better than Kerry did in 2004.

Of course, people who aren't completely brainwashed by the corporate media are aware that Kerry won the 2004 election, with both Florida and Ohio stolen via massive GOP election fraud. However, GOP criminality is still a serious threat, so Democrats need to think about how they can run up the score in the Electoral College.

One group of red states which would provide fertile ground for Obama is the small states where live speeches and rallies can have a proportionately higher impact. These states have been neglected by candidates in both parties, making attention paid on them more striking on the audiences.

For the sake of setting an arbitrary boundary, here are red states with 5 or fewer electors.

Alaska (3)
Idaho (4)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
Nevada (5)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Utah (5)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
- That's a total of 39 electors, enough alone to flip the election.

Another set of promising states are Midwestern and Western states where the strong GOP edges of the 90's are eroding. (Arizona is omitted because it is "Keating Five" McCain's home state.)

Colorado (9)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
- 15 electors (not counting Montana twice)

Then, there are the typical swing states that Kerry happened to lose.
Arkansas (6)
Iowa (7)
Missouri (11)
New Mexico (5)
- 29 electors

A lot of pundits are describing Virginia as a new swing state. Let's say they are correct:
- 13 electors

What about Ohio and Florida? With a Republican Governor and a Secretary of State appointed by that governor, the Democrat will win, but the election will be stolen. However, Ohio now has a Democrat as Secretary of State which will make it much more difficult for the GOP to steal the election there.

- 20 electors

That adds up to:

116 electors!

Obviously, it is unlikely that Obama will win all of those states, but he should have little difficulty picking up the net gain of 18 electoral votes needed to become our head of state. As long as the Democratic Party insiders don't disenfranchise the voters to benefit the Clintons, the GOP will lose their hold on the Executive Branch.



  1. It's not only the repubs that are screwing this nomination. I remember reagan saying something to his fellow rebubs "never criticize a fellow rebublican" Hillary has gone over board in her venous attacks against Obama. If she wins the nomination, I'll vote for her but hold my nose!

  2. Mauigirl Says:
  3. Great analysis, let's hope he gets the chance to prove he can win some of these states.

    Minnesotablue, I agree - it seems as if in today's politics there is a no-holds-barred aspect to it that was not the case 25 years ago or before. It's really sad.

  4. Adam R. Says:
  5. Virginia is a swing state now?!?

    After having spent about three years too many in Harrisonburg, I never thought that I'd see the day. :)

  6. libhom Says:
  7. adam: It's mostly people moving to Northern Virginia from outside the state and outside the country I'm told.

  8. thepoetryman Says:
  9. Methinks the neocons will lose more than just the throne this November. Both Chambers will follow suit.



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