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Arizona Probably Has Become a Swing State

Posted by libhom Sunday, October 26, 2008

If Arizona was not "Keating Five" McCain's home state, one would expect it to be hotly contested. It is sandwiched between California, solidly Democratic, and New Mexico which is been leaning Obama in this campaign.

It looks like Arizona is a swing state now in spite of it being John McCain's home state.

From the Arizona Daily Star (hat tip Pollster.com):

"It's not just here, look at the entire intermountain West," said Arizona State University political pollster Bruce Merrill. "New Mexico, Nevada, the whole West has moved significantly from strong red to purple."

A statewide poll taken by Tucson-based Democratic pollsters Carol and Pete Zimmerman two weeks out from the election suggests McCain's lead over Obama falls within the margin of error: 43.5 percent to 41.5 percent, with 10 percent of likely Arizona voters undecided.

Merrill is conducting a similar poll this weekend and predicts that the economic downturn will have narrowed McCain's advantage from the 8-percentage-point lead he enjoyed in a previous poll.

That isn't the only Arizona poll which shows McCain has problems there. From PolitickerAZ.com:
"Importantly, this survey represents a dramatic shift from our last survey in mid-September wherein McCain then led Obama by 14-points, 40 to 54 percent," reads the memo from Andrew Myers and Lisa Grove.

Their firms, Myers Research and Grove Insight, conducted the poll on behalf of Project New West, the Denver-based Democratic strategy group, and included 600 likely voters. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 4 points.

The poll finds that the contest "is an absolute dead heat" among early voters, with Obama edging McCain 47 to 46 percent. According to the results, 34 percent have already cast their ballot through early voting. Among those who haven't voted yet, McCain is up over Obama 49 to 42 percent.

These are Democratic pollsters, so some caution should be taken. However, even if their margins are off a few points, Arizona does appear to be in reach for Obama.

Somebody could accurately point out that Gore won in 2000 without winning his home state, but the electoral college math already strongly disfavors "Keating Five" McCain. He doesn't need to be fighting for his home state at this point.



  1. Shaw Kenawe Says:
  2. I don't care if Obama wins in Arizona or not. The fact that he's making it competitive is awesome.

    This weekend, Palin drew 13,000 to her rally in Ft. Wayne, Indiana.

    Sen. Obama drew 35,000 in Indianapolis on Thursday!


    And it is now a "toss-up" state.


  3. RickB Says:
  4. Arizona, the schadenfreude state!

  5. Wonder Man Says:
  6. I hope Arizona becomes a swing state

  7. Karlo Says:
  8. I'm still holding out hope for an even bigger landslide than predicted. We need to completely bury the Republican agenda and then pack the dirt down hard and put a stone over it.



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