On February 9, 2008 I said that it looked like Obama would win the Democratic nomination. Given the Clinton/Obama tie on Super Tuesday, what should have been Clinton's best day, I didn't see how Clinton could win.

Now, I'm going to take an even smaller risk by projecting that Barack Obama will win the 2008 election. I'm fairly certain also, that Obama will win by a big enough margin that even massive election fraud like the GOP committed in 2004 will not be able to overturn the results of the election.

Here are the factors that have led me to that conclusion.

National Polls
Obama leads in all the polls listed today on PollingReport.com. This pattern has held up for quite a while.

Statewide Polls
In my previous posting, I mentioned that "Keating Five" McCain is even seeing his lead shrink in Arizona, his home state which most projections show as safely GOP. This follows a pattern of McCain having varying degress of trouble in several formerly red states such as West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina. Obama has solid leads in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Obama could win without either Ohio or Florida, both of which are up for grabs too.

Here are the latest electoral vote counts from two sources that include leaning states in their counts.

ElectoralVote.com - Obama: 375 McCain: 157 Ties: 6

Wikipedia - Obama: 352 McCain: 172 Ties: 14

More cautious sources consistently have Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win with plenty of electoral votes in the toss up categories. I should point out that pollsters say they are taking cell phone only voters (who favor Obama) into account properly, but I'm skeptical.

Money
Obama has a huge lead in money going into the final part of the campaign. Obama's Internet fundraising lead also provides him a cushion. If McCain starts to surge back in the polls, literally millions of panicked Obama supporters will give more money.

Early Voting Favoring Obama
In states such as Ohio and Florida where minority neighborhoods have had insufficient polling places and machines, early voting inherently favors Obama by counteracting the GOP's most potent form of voter suppression. There are other indications that early voting is helping Obama, aside from the fact that the GOP tried to block it in court in Ohio. From the Los Angeles Times 10/25/08:

Reporting from Washington -- Record numbers of voters across the nation are casting ballots before election day, including high proportions of Democrats and African Americans in some of the battleground states in what appears to be a promising sign for Barack Obama.

In the 32 states that allow people to vote before Nov. 4 without a special excuse, election officials report heavy turnout as the presidential campaign reaches its frenzied last days. That's not surprising in a campaign that has received round-the-clock attention. But it also reflects the intensive efforts of campaigns competing to bank votes before election day.

A Declining Economy
If you have been living in a cave or something, I should tell you that the stock markets have crashed globally. Snark aside, we seem to be entering the second phase of the economic crises, with stocks declining now primarily due to expectations of a global recession led by the US. Peoples' retirements are in serious trouble, and the likelihood of a deeper recession hurts McCain, who spent the primary season trying to make himself sound like the second splatting of Bush. Additionally, polls don't take into account the declines in the stock market and the general US economy over the next week because nobody knows how much worse it is going to get.

The AWOL Rapture
The failure of the much anticipated Rapture to appear in the time around the year 2000 has reduced the fervor of the Christian Right, fervor which keeps declining. I've yet to read about any pollster modifying estimations of "likely voters" to take into account that fewer Christian fundamentalists will be participating than in previous years. The dismal failure of the administration of a fundie like Bush can't be helping to energize the flock much either.

Newspaper Endorsements
I've always been amazed how much newspaper endorsements influence undecided voters. Here's the count from Editor and Publisher as of this weekend.

Obama over McCain by 160-59

Adding insult and injury, Sarah Palin's home state's biggest paper, the Anchorage Daily News, endorsed Obama yesterday.

Grassroots Organization
I thought I'd be ornery and include one of the most important factors at the end. Barack Obama has been the first presidential candidate since I can remember to recognize the importance of grassroots organizing, much less pull it off. It will be interesting to see how much of Obama's own grassroots machine will stay intact after the election is over.

Independent organizing on Obama behalf by MoveOn.org and other centrist and progressive organizations is finally comparable to that of the Christian Taliban. This provides a critical area where Obama leads Oscar the Grouch.