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My Electoral Vote Guess

Posted by libhom Sunday, November 02, 2008

I've already projected Obama the winner, but I thought it would be fun to guess the outcomes on a state by state basis.

electoral college map with my guesses as to who will win each state

I made this with Yahoo! Political Dashboard. You can go to the interactive version of this scenario. Once there, you can see their pollsters' guess or make up your own scenario.

My guess: Obama 354 - McCain 184

Going roughly from West to East, North to South, here are the states where I should probably explain things a bit.

Montana - Obama
Ron Paul is on the ballot in this state. The only poll I've seen that includes Paul showed Obama ahead. McCain has had a narrow lead in other polls. Montana is gradually shifting from red to blue generally. If Obama does well on the east coast, some demoralized McCain supporters will probably stay home.

Nevada - Obama
Obama has narrow leads in most polls. Early voting gives the Obama campaign the edge they need to win.

Arizona - Obama
This is a state where a lot of people lost money in Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings. "Keating Five" McCain lost a lot of ground quickly after the banking crisis, which serves as a major reminder of the S&L crisis that McCain helped to cause. Arizona is another state that is shifting away from the Goppers. Most importantly, Obama is leading in early voting.

Colorado - Obama
Obama's lead in that state keeps growing. The Democratic Party has become the majority party in most state politics.

North Dakota - "Keating Five" McCain
The state will be close, but the absence of Ron Paul on the ballot will keep Obama form winning there like he should in Montana.

Missouri - "Keating Five" McCain
I think this is another close state, but the influence of religious fundamentalists will be enough to tip it to McCain.

Arkansas - "Keating Five" McCain
Early voting will make it closer for Obama than the polls are saying, but not close enough.

Indiana - "Keating Five" McCain
This state will be close, but with early voting only in some areas, McCain will probably squeak through. I don't think Indiana is quite ready to kick its addiction with voting Republican quite yet.

Ohio - Obama
Most polls show Obama ahead. Angry voters who were upset by election irregularities and GOP corruption cost the Goppers a governor and a senator in 2006. Obama voters will be more motivated. More importantly, early voting will counteract the effects of racist and ageist voter suppression in that state.

Georgia - Obama
The polls show a narrow lead for McCain, but the enormous lines of African Americans waiting for early voting tell another story. This looks to be a close victory for Obama.

Pennsylvania - Obama
This will the third election where the Republicans will have had hopes of winning that state. This will be the third time in a row where the Goppers will be disapointed.

Virginia - Obama
Obama has been ahead in the polls, and an NAACP lawsuit has forced the stae to eliminate some of the barriers to voting for African Americans. There are a lot of government employees in Virginia that will lose their jobs if McCain were to carry through on his threats to cut gummint spending.

North Carolina - Obama
Record early voting trending heavily Democratic will more than make up for GOP voting machine fraud in that state.

New Hampshire - "Keating Five" McCain Obama
The map is correct. My typing was in error. McCain sure wasted a lot of time in a state with four electoral votes that is solidly Democratic. Oops!

Florida, Florida, Florida - "Keating Five" McCain
We know that in any honest election, Obama would win just like Gore and Kerry did. There is no reason to think that this election will be any less dishonest in that state. Even early voting there won't make up for massive voting machine fraud, illegal voter suppression, and other GOP election fraud.

7 comments

  1. Jimmy Says:
  2. I have my fingers double crossed for my Hoosier state. When my friend and I early voted Thursday, it seemed like the majority of people in the over an hour long line were Democratic voters. Obama's rallys were attended by more people than McCain or Palin's so I think that is a good sign. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is generally popular and should be easily re-elected; Hoosiers however, are notorious ticket splitters. Your electoral map is pretty consistant. I can't wait to exhale with relief.

     
  3. Dave Dubya Says:
  4. We can only hope you're right, brother.

     
  5. JayV Says:
  6. Are you saying NH will go for Obama? You mark your explanation as going for McCain. Yeah, you'd mentioned McCain's numerous visits to NH before. (I live in VT, solidly part of Obamanation.) McCain was in NH again today. Crikey!

     
  7. Lew Scannon Says:
  8. Here in Michigan, Obama has a 16 point lead. That's what happens when your opponent announces he's withdrawing from a state.

     
  9. libhom Says:
  10. jimmy: I certainly hope you are correct.

    dave: It would take enormous election fraud for McCain to "win."

    jayv: Thanks for catching that error.

    lew: McCain wasted a lot of relatively scare money in Michigan before he gave up. I think he punted the state in the primary when he said that the auto industry jobs were never coming back there, a rather passive, rather than presidential, view.

     
  11. Dave Dubya Says:
  12. In his last trip to Michigan, McCain was greeted at an auto plant with booing line workers wearing Obama shirts.

    Heh, heh, Maybe THAT did it.

     
  13. Christopher Says:
  14. How sweet it would be if the Old Coot lost Arizona!

    Talk about sticking it to him.

     

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